歐洲基金5月回顧與未來展望
一、5月份操作檢討:
歐洲基金5/31基金淨值為6.37,4/30基金淨值為6.51,5月份淨值下跌 2.15%,主要原因為企業復甦不如預期,股價下跌所致。 持股差異原因:1. 就未來看好與基本面改變的個股稍作調整。 二、6月份操作展望及佈局: 1.歐元匯價近日受日本總體經濟觸底反彈、美國經濟復甦腳步不如預期等因素而走揚,目前徘徊於0.94附近,因美國復甦腳步和緩,一般對歐元看法傾向於樂觀,上檔至1.00;英鎊匯價近日受總理對英鎊加入歐元談話影響而走貶,創14個月以來新低,目前徘徊於1.45 – 1.46間,長期走勢與歐元相關性大。 類股配置: 5月底實際持股 原規劃 6月底預定 Transportation 1.25% 1.25% 1.25% Telecommunication 10.14% 11.00% 10.00% Software 0.45% 0.50% 0.50% Semiconductor 1.06% 1.00% 1.00% Retail 1.95% 1.25% 2.00% Pharmaceuticals 9.73% 10.00% 9.75% Oil & Gas Producers 11.81% 11.50% 11.75% Mining 1.85% 1.75% 1.75% Metal Fabricate/Hardware 0.58% 0.75% 0.60% Media 2.91% 2.85% 2.90% Machinery-Diversified 0.51% 0.50% 0.50% Insurance 4.90% 6.00% 5.00% Home Furnishings 0.82% 0.75% 0.80% Holding Company 0.78% 0.75% 0.75% Hand/Machine Tools 1.20% 1.00% 1.20% Forest Product & Paper 0.85% 0.85% 0.85% Food 5.34% 4.75% 5.35% Engineering/Construction 1.07% 0.00% 1.00% Electronics 3.75% 4.35% 3.75% Diversified Financial Service 0.63% 0.85% 0.65% Commercial Services 3.22% 3.00% 3.20% Chemical 2.51% 2.25% 2.50% Building Materials 0.71% 0.65% 0.75% Beverages 1.99% 2.20% 2.00% Banks 20.33% 18.50% 20.20% 總持股 89.83% 88.50% 90.00%
2. 近期因 Non-OPEC國家產油增加,再加上下半年經濟復甦不如先前預期,油價走勢疲弱,目前每桶油價徘徊於24美元。
3. 全球復甦之路已確立,預期第三季季底起全球將有升息壓力。
4. 企業盈餘展望及經濟指標已有轉佳跡象,未來市場觀察重點將在於企業盈餘是否有實質改善及預期是否轉佳。
5. 歐洲通訊業財務狀況仍不佳,為未來市場觀察重點之一。近期盤勢因企業盈餘展望不佳而回落,短期盤勢因暑期到來,股市交投將清淡。
國家配置:
5月底實際持股 | 原規劃 | 6月底預定 | |
UK | 25.09% | 24.75% | 25.00% |
France | 16.62% | 15.75% | 16.65% |
Netherlands | 9.12% | 8.50% | 9.10% |
Germany | 9.07% | 10.35% | 9.10% |
Switzerland | 11.68% | 10.80% | 11.70% |
Finland | 3.41% | 3.50% | 3.50% |
Sweden | 2.77% | 3.00% | 2.80% |
Spain | 3.64% | 3.35% | 3.65% |
Italy | 8.43% | 8.50% | 8.50% |
總持股 | 89.83% | 88.50% | 90.00% |