歐洲基金4月回顧與未來展望
一、4月份操作檢討:
歐洲基金4/30基金淨值為6.51,3/29基金淨值為6.70,4月份淨值下跌2.84%,主要原因為企業復甦不如預期,股價下跌所致。 持股差異原因:1. 就未來看好與基本面改變的個股稍作調整。 二、5月份操作展望及佈局: 1. 歐元未來走勢將受全球經濟消長情況及油價走勢而影響(因原油購入成本為美元,購油時需先將歐元轉換為美元),近期因歐洲雖露出復甦跡象但油價走揚,歐元在0.88到0.92左右游走。 類股配置: 4月底實際持股 原規劃 5月底預定 Transportation 1.22% 1.00% 1.25% Telecommunication 11.09% 13.00% 11.00% Software 0.46% 1.25% 0.50% Semiconductor 1.09% 1.25% 1.00% Retail 1.28% 1.50% 1.25% Pharmaceuticals 9.88% 10.00% 10.00% Oil & Gas Producers 11.11% 11.50% 11.50% Mining 1.65% 1.75% 1.75% Metal Fabricate/Hardware 0.79% 0.50% 0.75% Media 2.81% 3.00% 2.85% Machinery-Diversified 0.51% 0.50% 0.50% Insurance 5.99% 6.00% 6.00% Home Furnishings 0.73% 0.15% 0.75% Holding Company 0.70% 0.60% 0.75% Hand/Machine Tools 1.04% 1.00% 1.00% Forest Product & Paper 0.82% 0.00% 0.85% Food 4.68% 4.50% 4.75% Electronics 4.36% 4.25% 4.35% Diversified Financial Service 0.83% 1.00% 0.85% Computers 0.24% 0.50% 0.25% Commercial Services 2.99% 3.50% 3.00% Chemical 2.21% 1.25% 2.25% Building Materials 0.62% 0.50% 0.65% Beverages 2.17% 2.00% 2.20% Banks 18.47% 16.50% 18.50% 總持股 88.22% 87.00% 88.50%
2. 近期因中東危機導致油價暴漲暴跌,下半年起經濟復甦用油將增加,油價未來看漲,有可能每桶油價高達30元,通膨隱憂浮現,為全球經濟復甦的最大阻力。
3. 全球復甦之路已確立,預期第四季起全球將有升息壓力。
4. 企業盈餘展望及經濟指標已有轉佳跡象,未來市場觀察重點將在於企業盈餘是否有實質改善及預期是否轉佳。
5. 歐洲通訊業財務狀況仍不佳,為未來市場觀察重點之一。
6. 近期盤勢因總體經濟情勢轉好而反彈,短期盤勢若有拉回即應加碼,股市發展長線看好。
國家配置:
4月底實際持股 | 原規劃 | 5月底預定 | |
UK | 24.75% | 25.60% | 24.75% |
France | 15.71% | 15.85% | 15.75% |
Netherlands | 8.40% | 7.50% | 8.50% |
Germany | 10.36% | 10.10% | 10.35% |
Switzerland | 10.80% | 10.75% | 10.80% |
Finland | 3.48% | 3.50% | 3.50% |
Sweden | 2.93% | 2.60% | 3.00% |
Spain | 3.33% | 2.60% | 3.35% |
Italy | 8.46% | 8.50% | 8.50% |
總持股 | 88.22% | 87.00% | 88.50% |