歐洲基金6月回顧與未來展望
一、6月份操作檢討:
歐洲基金6/28基金淨值為6.09,5/31基金淨值為6.37,6月份淨值下跌 4.40%,主要原因為企業復甦不如預期,股價下跌所致。 持股差異原因:就未來看好與基本面改變的個股稍作調整。 二、7月份操作展望及佈局: 1、歐元匯價近日受日本總體經濟觸底反彈、美國經濟復甦腳步不如預期等因素而走揚,目前徘徊於0.99附近,因美國復甦腳步和緩,一般對歐元看法傾向於樂觀,上檔至1.02;英鎊匯價近日受歐元升值影響而走揚,創17個月以來新高,目前徘徊於1.54 – 1.55間,長期走勢與歐元相關性大。 近期盤勢因企業盈餘展望不佳而回落,短期盤勢因暑期,交投將清淡。 類股配置: 6月底實際持股 原規劃 7月底預定 Water 0.56% 0.00% 0.50% Transportation 1.41% 1.25% 1.40% Telecommunication 9.53% 10.00% 9.50% Software 0.46% 0.50% 0.50% Semiconductor 0.97% 1.00% 1.00% Retail 1.87% 2.00% 2.00% Pharmaceuticals 9.69% 9.75% 9.75% Oil & Gas Producers 11.61% 11.75% 11.75% Mining 1.82% 1.75% 1.75% Metal Fabricate/Hardware 0.62% 0.60% 0.60% Media 3.82% 2.90% 3.80% Machinery-Diversified 0.49% 0.50% 0.50% Insurance 4.83% 5.00% 5.00% Home Furnishings 0.71% 0.80% 0.80% Holding Company 0.75% 0.75% 0.75% Hand/Machine Tools 1.280% 1.20% 1.20% Forest Product & Paper 0.84% 0.85% 0.85% Food 5.45% 5.35% 5.50% Engineering/Construction 1.06% 1.00% 1.00% Electronics 3.85% 3.75% 3.75% Diversified Financial Service 0.49% 0.65% 0.50% Commercial Services 0.57% 3.20% 0.60% Chemical 2.58% 2.50% 2.50% Building Materials 0.68% 0.75% 0.70% Beverages 2.09% 2.00% 2.00% Banks 19.12% 20.20% 19.50% 總持股 87.15% 90.00% 87.70%
2、近期因OPEC國家未協議減產,再加上下半年經濟復甦不如先前預期,油價走勢疲弱,目前每桶油價徘徊於25美元。
3、全球復甦之路雖已確立但不如先前樂觀,預期第4季起全球才會有升息壓力。
4、企業盈餘展望仍未有轉佳的跡象,未來市場觀察重點將在於企業盈餘是否有實質改善及預期是否轉佳。5、歐洲通訊業財務狀況仍不佳,為未來市場觀察重點之一。
國家配置:
6月底實際持股 | 原規劃 | 7月底預定 | |
UK | 23.89% | 25.00% | 24.00% |
France | 16.87% | 16.65% | 17.00% |
Netherlands | 8.97% | 9.10% | 9.00% |
Germany | 8.79% | 9.10% | 9.00% |
Switzerland | 11.09% | 11.70% | 11.10% |
Finland | 3.51% | 3.50% | 3.50% |
Sweden | 2.75% | 2.80% | 2.75% |
Spain | 3.08% | 3.65% | 3.10% |
Italy | 8.20% | 8.50% | 8.25% |
總持股 | 87.15% | 90.00% | 87.70% |